ExecutivePulse
Official Federal Data

Warren County, Tennessee

FIPS 47177 · McMinnville, TN · Population 42,166
9 Sources Updated June 22, 2026
$55,487
Median Income
$80,734 national
3.9%
Unemployment
4% national
$2B
GDP
14.1%
Bachelor's+
35.7% national

Demographics & Population

Census Bureau American Community Survey 2020-2024 · 5-Year Estimates

Household Income

Source: U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-Year Estimates
Median Household
$55,487
Per Capita
$29,524
Mean Household
$74,703
Poverty Rate
15.7%
Median Income Comparison
Warren County$55,487
Tennessee$69,595
National$80,734

Population Profile

Source: Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 · Tables B01001, B02001, B03003
65+: 17.9% (7,552 residents) 55-64: 13.2% (5,562 residents) 35-54: 25.1% (10,565 residents) 18-34: 20.6% (8,669 residents) Under 18: 23.3% (9,818 residents) 40 Median Age
Cohorts
Under 18 · 23.3%
18-34 · 20.6%
35-54 · 25.1%
55-64 · 13.2%
65+ · 17.9%
Race & Ethnicity
White85.5%
Black or African American2.7%
Asian0.6%
Hispanic or Latino(any race)10%
Hispanic or Latino is an ethnic category and overlaps with the race categories above.

Educational Attainment

Source: Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 · Table B15003 · Population 25+
86.3%
High School+
National: 89.6%
▼ 3.3 pts
14.1%
Bachelor's+
National: 35.7%
▼ 21.6 pts
4.9%
Graduate+
National: 14.1%
▼ 9.2 pts

Employment Overview

Source: U.S. Census Bureau · American Community Survey 2020-2024 5-Year Estimates
42,166
Population
19,422
Labor Force
Employed
18,276
Unemployment Rate BLS LAUS 2025 annual
3.9% ▲ +0.1 pts YoY
Mean Commute
26.9 min
Work From Home vs 15.1% national
6.4%
Key Takeaways
  • Income gap: Households earn meaningfully less than the national median, which directly affects retail demand, housing absorption, and tax base.
  • Elevated poverty: At 15.7%, the rate is in economically distressed territory and supports federal funding narratives (CDFI, NMTC, EDA).
  • Talent gap: Bachelor's-or-higher attainment trails the national average by 21.6 pts, relevant for advanced-services attraction strategy.

Economy & Industry

Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW · Bureau of Economic Analysis

$2B
Gross Domestic Product · 2024
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis · CAGDP1 Regional GDP

Top Industries by Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics · Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages 2025 Annual
Top industries by employment in Warren County, Tennessee, with employment, share of top sectors, and average wage
IndustryEmploymentShare of Top 10Avg Wage
1Manufacturing
2,933 31.2%
$68,154
2Retail Trade
1,532 16.3%
$33,246
3Health Care and Social Assistance
1,131 12.0%
$47,951
4Accommodation and Food Services
1,028 10.9%
$18,803
5Administrative and Support and Waste Management
648 6.9%
$46,277
6Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
579 6.2%
$42,782
7Construction
533 5.7%
$63,515
8Wholesale Trade
406 4.3%
$70,051
9Finance and Insurance
360 3.8%
$72,464
10Other Services (except Public Administration)
244 2.6%
$44,266
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Key Takeaways
  • Largest sector: Manufacturing employs 2,933 workers (31.2% of tracked sectors), at an average wage of $68,154.
  • Economic scale: Regional GDP of $2B (2024).
  • Wage stratification: Finance and Insurance averages $72,464 while Accommodation and Food Services averages $18,803, a 3.9x spread in the same local economy, with implications for workforce development and talent strategy.
Source: BLS QCEW + BEA Regional GDP.
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Industry Concentration

Location Quotient measures regional specialization vs. national average. LQ > 1.0 = concentrated.

Location Quotient Analysis

Concentrated Industries
Source: BLS QCEW · 3-digit NAICS sub-sector · Location Quotient vs. national employment share
Same source as the Top Industries table above, sub-sector view surfaces the specialization the supersector view masks (e.g., Plastics & Rubber Manufacturing inside the Manufacturing supersector).
Crop Production
12.81x
542
Wood Product Manufacturing
3.30x
106
Machinery Manufacturing
2.57x
224
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
2.44x
279
Building Material and Garden Supply Retailers
2.35x
258
2.23x
4,045
General Merchandise Retailers
2.05x
531
Gasoline Stations and Fuel Dealers
1.74x
146
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
1.66x
55

Cluster Depth

Source: BLS QCEW · Sub-sectors with LQ ≥ 1.5 indicate genuine cluster concentration
Dominant Cluster
Goods-Producing Cluster
Coherent grouping of concentrated sub-sectors, signals supply-chain fit for site selectors
4,045
Cluster Employment
2.23x
Peak LQ
Concentrated Sub-Sectors
Crop Production
12.81x 542
Wood Product Manufacturing
3.30x 106
Machinery Manufacturing
2.57x 224
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
2.44x 279
Building Material and Garden Supply Retailers
2.35x 258
2.23x 4,045
General Merchandise Retailers
2.05x 531
Gasoline Stations and Fuel Dealers
1.74x 146
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
1.66x 55

Attraction Opportunities

LQ < 0.5 with ≥ 50 employed, realistic diversification targets. Source: BLS QCEW
0.37x
Insurance Carriers and Related Activities
76 employed
0.39x
Warehousing and Storage
59 employed
0.40x
Educational Services
103 employed
Key Takeaways
  • Top specialization: Crop Production concentrates at 12.81x the national norm, top-decile concentration, the kind of signature sector that defines a region's economic identity to site selectors.
  • Cluster depth: 9 sub-sectors register LQ ≥ 1.5, suggesting an interconnected industrial base rather than reliance on a single employer or sector.
  • Attraction whitespace: 8 sub-sectors register LQ < 0.5, candidates for diversification or recruitment depending on labor-market fit.
Source: BLS QCEW sub-sector Location Quotients.
Warren County's Top Sectors by Workforce Share
Each rectangle's area is proportional to that sector's share of total private-sector employment across all NAICS supersectors. Hover for exact employment.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW 2025 Annual · Private sector, NAICS supersectors

Housing & Affordability

Census ACS · HUD Fair Market Rents FY2026

Housing Overview

Source: Census Bureau ACS 2020-2024 5-Year Estimates · Tables B25001, B25077, B25064
$192,900
Median Home Value vs 2019
$827
Rent/Mo
72.4%
Owner-Occ
12.6%
Vacancy
3.5x
Home Value to Income Ratio
vs. ~4.1x national average

HUD Fair Market Rents

Source: HUD · Fair Market Rents FY2026
Studio
$730/mo
1 Bedroom
$735/mo
2 Bedroom
$964/mo
3 Bedroom
$1,156/mo
4 Bedroom
$1,276/mo
30% of monthly median household income (~$1,387/mo) · rents above this line are typically considered cost-burdened.
Key Takeaways
  • In line with national: Home value to income ratio of 3.5x sits near the ~4.1x national average; affordability is neither a clear advantage nor a recruitment friction.
  • High home ownership: 72.4% owner-occupied; rental supply may be tight for incoming workers.
  • Elevated vacancy: 12.6% vacancy rate. In resort, rural, and seasonal markets much of this is recreational/seasonal (second homes), not available supply; confirm the vacancy-by-reason split before treating it as a redevelopment opportunity.
  • Broadly affordable rents: All 5 HUD Fair Market Rent bedroom tiers sit below the 30%-of-median-income affordability threshold (~$1,387/mo), a clear cost-of-living advantage for workforce attraction.
Source: Census ACS housing tables + HUD Fair Market Rents.

Workforce Pipeline

Labor force readiness, commuting, and workforce composition

Labor Market Overview

Source: Census ACS 2020-2024 · Tables B01001, B23025, B08303, B08301
24,796
Working Age (18-64) vs 2019
Mean Commute
26.9 min
Work From Home vs 15.1% national
6.4%
Prime-Age Employed (25-54)
74.2%
of prime-age population
Labor force participation rate: 60% of working-age population (18-64) 60% Participation
▲ vs 2019

Education & Talent Pipeline

Source: Census ACS 2020-2024 · Table B15003 · College Scorecard
Bachelor's+
14.1%
HS Diploma+
86.3%
Regional / Statewide Institutions
Total credentials awarded
26,245/yr
The University of Tennessee-Knoxville 8,049/yr
University of Memphis 4,862/yr
Middle Tennessee State University 4,677/yr
East Tennessee State University 3,604/yr
The University of Tennessee-Chattanooga 2,551/yr
Tennessee Technological University 2,502/yr

Aging Workforce

Source: Census Bureau ACS · Derived from age & employment tables
22.4%
55-64 of working-age population (18-64)
Elevated retirement risk, above the 20% threshold. Succession planning recommended.

Workforce by Occupation

Source: Census ACS 2020-2024 · Table C24010 · Civilian employed population 16+
Management / Professional
26.1%
Service
15.9%
Sales & Office
21.5%
Construction / Maint.
12.1%
Production / Transport
24.3%
Bars scaled 2× for visual differentiation; percentage labels show actual share of 18,276 employed workers.
Key Takeaways
  • Succession risk is real: 22.4% of working-age residents are 55-64. Plan for retirements over the next decade and pair attraction strategy with talent retention.
  • Talent pipeline: 6 regional institutions feed the workforce; the top three combined produce 17,588 annual credentials.
Source: ACS workforce data and College Scorecard.

AI Insights

AI-assisted analysis, drawn from 9 federal data sources

Sample AI Insight

Warren County shows strong potential for crop production attraction, with a 12.81x concentration and 542 jobs in this sub-sector. It ranks in the top decile nationally. Near-term succession risk is elevated, with 22.4% of the working-age population within 10 years of retirement age.

The interconnected base across crop production, wood product manufacturing, and machinery manufacturing creates supply-chain attraction leverage rather than single-employer risk, a structural advantage for industrial recruitment.

Industry Shift Analysis

Manufacturing Automation Risk
High
Healthcare Growth Forecast
+4.2% CAGR
Remote Work Migration
67/100

Prospect Match Scores

Advanced Manufacturing
92/100
Life Sciences
84/100
Data Centers
71/100
Illustrative example

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Data Sources

Updated from official federal government data.

Census ACS 5-Year2024
BLS QCEW2025 annual
BLS LAUS (via FRED)2025 annual
BEA Regional GDP2024
Census CBP2023
HUD Fair Market RentsFY2026
FCC Broadband Map2024
USAspending.govFY2026
College ScorecardAY 2022-23

Frequently Asked Questions

Key economic and demographic figures for Warren County, Tennessee, from federal data sources.

What is the population of Warren County, Tennessee?

42,166 (U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates).

What is the median household income in Warren County, Tennessee?

$55,487 (U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Estimates).

What is the unemployment rate in Warren County, Tennessee?

3.9% (2025 annual average, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS).

What is the GDP of Warren County, Tennessee?

$2B (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, CAGDP1).